Making goals, staying realistic

I have a 5K race coming up in 2 more days. As I mentioned, I have some goals I'm hoping to meet for this race. If the stars align, my primary goal is this:

1. Run the 5km in under 30 minutes.

I have never run 5km in under 30 minutes while training. However, this race takes place in just about the flattest place around. I do most of my training in hillier areas. I have also run both my previous races considerably faster then I thought I was able to based on my training at the time. Race day adrenaline does amazing things.

I will control what I can. I'm well trained for this race and the distance itself is easy now. To achieve this goal, I will have to push myself, but I know I can do it over that distance. I am quite capable of running a km in less then 6 minutes, and I believe I can do five of them in a row like that.

Some things are unfortunately out of my control. It was fairly warm earlier this week and now it's started snowing. The forecast calls for more snow the next couple days. Sadly, this sets the stage for slick pathways covered with snow. Currently the temperatures forecast are a high of -9c (16f) and a low of -20c (-4f). The temperature I can handle, but this may mean the worst possible traction conditions.

Barring the ability to run a 30 minute 5K, my secondary goal is to:

2. Beat my previous 5K time of 31:25.

This should be very doable. I've lost more then 20 pounds since I ran that race and I am much better trained now. That race was mostly flat, but not as flat as this one. However, it was on dry pathways...

If none of the stars align for me, and I'm left sliding about (or going slow to avoid sliding), I will still be happy achieving this:

3. Finish the race strong, knowing I have pushed myself.

I'm controlling what I can. I'm optimistic that the combination of my training and the likely use of my yaktrax will push me forward to achieve the sub-30 goal. I'm going to temper my optimism with realism though. Whatever happens on Friday, it will not defeat me.